Rabbit Holes and Butterfly Effects: Narrative Probabilities and Climate Science

Rabbit Holes and Butterfly Effects: Narrative Probabilities Climate Science1 Marco Caracciolo (bio) Probability is a central concept in scientific models of causation. When I say, for instance, that ‘smoking causes lung cancer,’ am not implying smoking will necessarily result cancer; only suggesting strong (causal) relationship between habits the incidence cancer. That probabilistic based on statistical which help scientists distinguish merely accidental outcomes from causal linkage. In this article, focus how kind relation brought into view by puts pressure ‘folk’ understanding causation underlies storytelling. also plays an important role narrative: when readers or viewers parse sequence narrated actions, their interpretation build assumptions about both (action 1 led to action 2) probability (how likely 2 as outcome 1). Crucially, however, narrative reflects cultural expectations surrounding human behavior, regularities. By contrast, engagements with complex phenomena (particularly, climate change) call new ways thinking causation—ways approximate models. We can start observation change elusive phenomenon unfolds global scale whose local consequences may be hard predict ascribe absolute certainty. This spatiotemporal distribution give rise [End Page 38] manifestations are far more surprising than link cancer, locally observable events. science complexity, phrase “butterfly effect” (coined meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz) refers seemingly minor disturbance within system have large-scale ramifications at remove. extension, use term describe unanticipated phenomenon.2 The butterfly metaphor comes Lorenz’s talk 1972 convention American Association Advancement Science, where he asked: “Does flap butterfly’s wings Brazil set off tornado Texas?” (qtd. Hilborn 425). For example directly relevant crisis, consider devastating wildfires swept through Australia early 2020. A Nature article states “human-induced increased risk weather conditions drove fires [in Australia] least 30%” (Phillips). effect history these ultimately located away Australia, processes industrialization capitalism that, emerging Western Europe turn eighteenth century, become main driver greenhouse gas emissions therefore around globe. It terms we say caused particular wildfires. differs fundamentally notions heart narrative. problem has been articulated lucidity Indian writer Amitav Ghosh Great Derangement (2016), discusses contemporary novel’s confrontation change. Ghosh, realist novel struggles account catastrophic rising sea levels temperatures: “To introduce such happenings fact court eviction mansion serious fiction long residence,” contends (24). Ghosh’s claims encountered great deal opposition ecologically oriented criticism (or ecocriticism), particularly because problematic dichotomy ‘serious’ genres fantastic, horror, fiction. way thinking, argued instance Ursula K. Heise review book, severely downplays potentialities non-realist, speculative vis-à-vis ecological crisis. Another aspect discussion attracted less attention, 39] though. failure encapsulate do probability: “Within pages event slightly improbable real life...